Yesterday, the news broke that Time Warner cable was going to test metered Internet service in Beaumont, Texas — basically laying out plans that limit monthly usage to between 5GB for 768Kb/s service and 40GB fro 15Mb/s service. Going over that amount will result in a $1/GB overage charge.
Sound familiar? We've been living with plans like these in the mobile space for years, but the funny thing is that the mobile operators are moving to (practically) unlimited plans. What market forces are driving these service providers in different directions?
The proponents of metered IP say that they have to do this to protect the scarce network resources from P2P file sharing rapscallions who use up all of the bandwidth and kill performance for the rest of us. They say that 5% of the users consume most of the bandwidth, and that these are the people they want to control with metering.
I have to wonder if there are other forces at work.
Besides file sharing, there are a few applications that could consume large amounts of bandwidth; can you guess what they are? How about telephony and streaming audio? Maybe streaming video and movie download services? Isn't it interesting that these services compete directly with the traditional telephone and video on demand offerings offered by most broadband providers?
So if you use the provider's voice and video services, you're safe from the overage charges, but if you dare to use Skype, Vonage, AppleTV, Netflix, and XBox Live you run the risk of a massive bill. After all, if you're on a Skype call for 4 hours, how many bits did you use? How many bits were in that episode of "The Simpsons" you watched? Do you even have any way of knowing?
Beyond that, IP is a notoriously lossy protocol. There's packetization overhead, re-transmission overhead, and a lot of other things beyond the applications' control that influence exactly how many bits are transmitted. Is it fair to make customers worry about this?
Am I being overly cynical? Maybe, but I think that the last mile providers have been worrying for a long time about being bypassed by these 'external' service providers. They don't want to become just 'bit pipes' to their customers, they want to own their customers. By capping monthly bandwidth, the local broadband providers effectively create a barrier to competing services delivered by companies like Microsoft, Apple, Blockbuster, Netflix, and Google.
What do you think?
Showing posts with label Telecommunications. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Telecommunications. Show all posts
Monday, June 2, 2008
Sunday, June 1, 2008
iPhone, Android, and the Changing Face of Telecommunications
Now that I need a new phone, I've decided to get an iPhone. However, I'm going to wait for the "rumored" 3G iPhone that's supposed to be released on the 9th of June after the WWDC keynote. I say rumored because Apple really hasn't said anything official and all I can go by are the hints given by AT&T and various unnamed sources.
I also recently viewed the latest Android demos from the Google I/O event. They showed the prototype software and hardware working together and doing some cool stuff. My impression was generally positive but there seemed to be some usability and performance issues and it wasn't as nicely packaged as the iPhone platform.
These developments have made me think about what's over the horizon. I remember getting a Palm Pilot when they first came to market in the '90s. PDAs and mobile phones have been inching closer since then, and I think 2008 is the year that most people will start to see that they've effectively merged. It makes sense: The PDA's necessarily small form factor means that they can't use a lot of power, therefore to make them useful they have to be supported by other computers in the network. Those computers 'in the cloud' handle all of the heavy lifting and allow the personal device to focus on providing a good aural and visual human interface.
The growing availability of 3G mobile networks around the world (in most major cities, anyway) makes this model practical. Let's face it, only a real geek would wait for web pages on a 2G network; normal folks don't have the patience. 3G, with lower latency and bandwidth approaching a megabit per second, should eliminate much of the lag that plagues mobile applications today.
The last domino to fall will be the traditional circuit-switched phone network. When the devices and networks can reliably handle mobile VoIP, you'll see the change begin. Some people will start using GoogleTalk, Microsoft Messenger, AIM, and Yahoo Messenger to make phone calls. At first they'll do it to save money, but eventually they'll start seeing new benefits. People will start asking questions like:
With the technical restrictions gone, it's time to drop the functional, legal, and contractual restrictions that have been around for the last hundred years and move to a new, open communications model. Someday they'll pull the plug on the last switch in the PSTN. That transition is starting now.
I also recently viewed the latest Android demos from the Google I/O event. They showed the prototype software and hardware working together and doing some cool stuff. My impression was generally positive but there seemed to be some usability and performance issues and it wasn't as nicely packaged as the iPhone platform.
These developments have made me think about what's over the horizon. I remember getting a Palm Pilot when they first came to market in the '90s. PDAs and mobile phones have been inching closer since then, and I think 2008 is the year that most people will start to see that they've effectively merged. It makes sense: The PDA's necessarily small form factor means that they can't use a lot of power, therefore to make them useful they have to be supported by other computers in the network. Those computers 'in the cloud' handle all of the heavy lifting and allow the personal device to focus on providing a good aural and visual human interface.
The growing availability of 3G mobile networks around the world (in most major cities, anyway) makes this model practical. Let's face it, only a real geek would wait for web pages on a 2G network; normal folks don't have the patience. 3G, with lower latency and bandwidth approaching a megabit per second, should eliminate much of the lag that plagues mobile applications today.
The last domino to fall will be the traditional circuit-switched phone network. When the devices and networks can reliably handle mobile VoIP, you'll see the change begin. Some people will start using GoogleTalk, Microsoft Messenger, AIM, and Yahoo Messenger to make phone calls. At first they'll do it to save money, but eventually they'll start seeing new benefits. People will start asking questions like:
- Why do I have to remember numbers for people?
- Why do I see a different interface on my mobile phone, house phone, and personal computer?
- Why can't I use audio and visual information together in a single 'call'?
With the technical restrictions gone, it's time to drop the functional, legal, and contractual restrictions that have been around for the last hundred years and move to a new, open communications model. Someday they'll pull the plug on the last switch in the PSTN. That transition is starting now.
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