iPhone, Android, and the Changing Face of Telecommunications

Now that I need a new phone, I've decided to get an iPhone. However, I'm going to wait for the "rumored" 3G iPhone that's supposed to be released on the 9th of June after the WWDC keynote. I say rumored because Apple really hasn't said anything official and all I can go by are the hints given by AT&T and various unnamed sources.

I also recently viewed the latest Android demos from the Google I/O event. They showed the prototype software and hardware working together and doing some cool stuff. My impression was generally positive but there seemed to be some usability and performance issues and it wasn't as nicely packaged as the iPhone platform.

These developments have made me think about what's over the horizon. I remember getting a Palm Pilot when they first came to market in the '90s. PDAs and mobile phones have been inching closer since then, and I think 2008 is the year that most people will start to see that they've effectively merged. It makes sense: The PDA's necessarily small form factor means that they can't use a lot of power, therefore to make them useful they have to be supported by other computers in the network. Those computers 'in the cloud' handle all of the heavy lifting and allow the personal device to focus on providing a good aural and visual human interface.

The growing availability of 3G mobile networks around the world (in most major cities, anyway) makes this model practical. Let's face it, only a real geek would wait for web pages on a 2G network; normal folks don't have the patience. 3G, with lower latency and bandwidth approaching a megabit per second, should eliminate much of the lag that plagues mobile applications today.

The last domino to fall will be the traditional circuit-switched phone network. When the devices and networks can reliably handle mobile VoIP, you'll see the change begin. Some people will start using GoogleTalk, Microsoft Messenger, AIM, and Yahoo Messenger to make phone calls. At first they'll do it to save money, but eventually they'll start seeing new benefits. People will start asking questions like:

• Why do I have to remember numbers for people?
• Why do I see a different interface on my mobile phone, house phone, and personal computer?
• Why can't I use audio and visual information together in a single 'call'?

The traditional telcos will fight this change, but how can they stop it without creating some artificial hurdle that will upset courts, governments, and their customers? The genie is out of the bottle, and powerful companies like Google and Microsoft have a stake in the success of the new model.

With the technical restrictions gone, it's time to drop the functional, legal, and contractual restrictions that have been around for the last hundred years and move to a new, open communications model. Someday they'll pull the plug on the last switch in the PSTN. That transition is starting now.